London Calling AVs

London, Summer of 2026: the city is the world’s #1 battleground for autonomous ride-hailing, with multiple global players launching simultaneously. Already committed to the cause are Uber & Wayve, Lyft/FREENOW & Baidu, and Waymo. Expect others (cough, Bolt) to join. From consumer-apps to technology players - let’s look at London - a year from now. 

Why are AV companies focusing on London all of a sudden?

Because the UK government sped up AV adoption. In June, the UK's Transport Minister announced an accelerated framework, aimed at bringing autonomous ride-hailing to London in the spring of 2026, a year ahead of the originally planned deployment. On July 21st, the UK government published an Open Consultation on “Automated passenger services: permitting scheme” which further opens the door for autonomous ride-hailing operations; we can expect regulation to be completed toward the end of 2025 / beginning of 2026. 

Why is London so important?

Shame on you for even asking such a question, but here goes: 

• London is big. The city has 9 million residents and over 20 million tourists entering each year. Come 2026 It will be the largest autonomous ride-hailing market in the Western world. It is also ideal for ride-hailing economics, offering a large dense urban environment. Fun fact: it is one of Uber’s five highest revenue cities. 

• London is complex. Modern streets next to medieval ones. Mixed traffic with buses & cars next to cyclists. People constantly cross the street on a red light. Plenty of road work in a dense urban environment. Rain, and lots of it. Possible snow and hail come winter. This isn’t Phoenix or Austin with wide, easy streets and good weather. If you can make it in London - you can make it anywhere. 

There’s more reasons, but let’s stop here. You get the point. 

So how will the future commercial competitive landscape look like?

Good question. This piece focuses on commercial autonomous ride-hailing. Some AV companies might enter London for limited trials, piloting both technology and commercial / consumer facing operations. But now we’re focusing on what will move the needle, i.e. full-scale commercial operations.
And the players are: 

1. Uber & Wayve - most likely to lead the market. The partnership between both companies is a strategic one, going back to August 2024 when Uber participated in Wayve's $1.05 billion round. Uber is the largest ride-hailing player in London, estimated to command ±70% of the ride-hailing market. Wayve is London-based, has performed trials in London for years now, and has a local operations team.

2. Lyft-FREENOW & Baidu (Apollo Go) - a recently announced partnership, Lyft is now partnering with Baidu, a prominent AV player. FREENOW’s London market share is circa 10%, divided between PHV (gig) and Black Cabs. Will Lyft use the opportunity to introduce its brand in Europe, side-by-side FREENOW which will continue to work with Black Cabs, or will FREENOW be the front for this operation, risking backlash from Black Cabs? TBD. 

3. Waymo has recently started advertising a Business Operations Principal role - indicating that the company is gearing up for a London launch. Waymo’s options: go solo (e.g. San Francisco), partner with a ride-hailing player (Bolt, Gett) or do both.

Which other ride-hailing players are there in London? 

This is where it gets even more interesting. 

• Bolt - the company has an AV program, but has yet to announce any partnerships. Its market share in London is believed to be roughly 20%, so Bolt must deploy autonomous ride-hailing in London. The million pound question - with who? 

• Gett - a small player in global terms but a sizable one in London, with millions of rides annually. Gett probably isn’t able to carry out large scale operations on its own, but it can be ‘bolted on’ to an existing AV partnership, as a way to increase demand. On the other hand, same as with FREENOW, it has to keep good relations with Black Cabs, which will obviously not like (British understatement) the new autonomous world order.  

• Addison Lee - a local UK player, recently acquired by ComfortDelGro. The global ownership adds to Addison Lee’s appeal, but it share Gett challenges.

Who are other Global AV-tech players likely to deploy in London?

Partnering with an established demand generating player is better than setting up a new consumer brand. There are a few questions here: (1) who will Bolt partner with; (2) Would Addison Lee or Gett try to initiate small local operations as pilots?; and (3) will there be new AV players trying to go in with their own brand? 

I don’t have all the answers, but let’s look at companies which we are likely to see in London, most likely as a result partnering with a local demand generating player: 

• Mobileye - powering the AV activities of MOIA in Germany and the US and with an existing partnership with Lyft in Dallas, Mobileye has yet to announce.

• WeRide - a rising player in the AV scene. WeRide operates commercial services and pilots in major Chinese cities and the UAE (with Uber), and has recently entered Europe with Shuttles in France and Switzerland, albeit both are not commercial ride-hailing. WeRide also has their own rider app and operations. 

• Pony.ai - similar to WeRide, operates in China and the UAE, and recently launched in luxembourg, for now on an initial pilot. A bit behind WeRide in terms of European expansion. Pony also has their own rider app and operations. 

• Avride - the company is running tests in Austin and preparing deployment in Dallas with Uber, expected later this year. London will be a huge leap for the company.

• May Mobility has several pilots in the US and are planned to launch in Atlanta with Lyft very soon - but don’t expect them to be ready for large-scale London deployment. 

• Oxa pivoted into logistics; it still runs Ford vans and shuttles in the US, but it is far behind the AV tech-readiness race.  

• Motional - controlled by Hyundai. The company is active in Pittsburgh, Las Vegas and Singapore. I don’t expect Hyundai to go all-in in London. 

Let’s stop here - with one more company to mention:

• Tesla -  big question over the tech-readiness of Tesla, which was blocked from operating FSD in the UK, taking criticism from regulators. We’re still a year away, which gives Tesla time (but probably not enough time) to prove a safe US operation. Possible, but highly unlikely.  If operating in London, Tesla will generate its own demand.

The following months are critical in terms of partnerships, eyes turn to Bolt. I expect to see at least four different autonomous ride-hailing services come summer of 2026 - exciting times.