You will buy an autonomous car

These are some of the best European cities in terms of public transport. On top of tubes (aka metro), buses and trams, they offer a variety of ride-hailing, taxi, micromobility and car-sharing solutions. On paper, allowing people to save on the costs of owning a private car and rely only on the public and shared mobility economy.

And still - people buy cars.

This chart shows the percentage of households that own a car in these cities (black) versus their national averages (blue). One could argue that the breath of mobility solutions in these dense cities make the private car obsolete, but it isn't so, for reasons that have to do with control, convenience, flexibility, private space and identity.

Those reasons, together with car ownership data, lead to the following conclusion: there will be a meaningful market for private autonomous cars.

Discussion on AVs is usually concentrated on robotaxis, but we neglect to acknowledge that Uber etc. has been offering a similar solution in terms of price and availability. And robotaxis, or shared-AVs, have the same shortcomings as ride-hailing fleets (minus the driver): you can’t customise them. You can’t leave your child seat in them. You can’t keep your water bottle or magazines ready. They are not yours.

There is also something deeper: people love ownership, and people love cars. All the more, cars are many times a projection of one's self and a social symbol.

 So yes, people will continue to buy cars. Even without a steering wheel.

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